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Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Wednesday’s MLB Games
By Todd Zola
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Wednesday features a slew of afternoon affairs, the first of which is in Cincinnati at 12:35 PM with the Reds hosting the Rangers in an interleague tussle. The final game is in San Francisco where the Giants and Anthony DeSclafani will entertain the Cardinals and Steven Matz. DeSclafani (57% rostered in ESPN leagues) may be available while Matz (1.9%) is almost assuredly available for streaming purposes on what should be a chilly night by the bay. Temperatures in the high 50s portend a low scoring night for both sides. Matz’s 6.55 ERA and 1.64 WHIP are misleading. He’s registered an above average strikeout rate, albeit with command-and-control issues. That said, a .373 BABIP and 65.8% left on base mark have done him no favors.
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Another young pitching prospect is set to make his MLB debut. Tanner Bibee was scratched from his Tuesday outing for Triple-A Columbus, ostensibly to start for the Guardians at home versus the Rockies. Bibee is a 24-year-old right-hander who put himself on the prospect map last season. Bibee’s promotion is on the heels of rookie teammate Logan Allen‘s inaugural start last weekend in Miami. It’s unclear if Bibee will remain with Cleveland past Wednesday, but Colorado is a manageable offense away from Coors Field and Bibee has strikeout upside, fanning 19 in 15.1 frames in three starts for the Clippers.
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The slate’s top ranked streamer is lefty Patrick Sandoval (48.4%) who will toe the rubber at home against the Athletics. It’s fair to be apprehensive after the Athletics cranked five homers off Angels’ southpaw Jose Suarez on Monday night, but Sandoval is a better pitcher than Suarez. That said, while Sandoval has yielded just one homer in four starts, spanning 18.2 frames, he’s walked 12 with just 15 punch outs. However, Sandoval’s last three foes have been the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Yankees. It should be noted Oakland has hit left-handers well, but that was boosted by Monday night’s onslaught, serving to demonstrate how early season numbers against lefty pitching are noisy.
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Bryce Elder (54%) checks in a tad over the usual 50% rostership used as a guide for identifying streamers, but this is a difficult slate for spot starters, so it’s worth investigating his availability. Elder was considered a long shot for the Braves rotation with Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd ahead of him in the spring, but Elder has emerged with the job and has responded with a tidy 23 strikeouts in 23.2 innings, with a reasonable seven walks, but no homers allowed. Elder will eventually serve up some homers, but on Wednesday he has a chance to make it five homerless games against a Marlins lineup hitting long balls at the 10th lowest rate in MLB.
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Tanner Houck (8.6%) has pitched like a man not wanting to be moved to a swingman role once the Red Sox pitching is fully healthy. His 4.29 ERA is a bit bloated, but a 3.51 xFIP and 3.78 SIERA indicate he merits a lower mark. Houck has another opportunity to impress Alex Cora before the Red Sox skipper reportedly decides on his five-man rotation. It’s not an easy matchup as Houck takes the hill in Camden yards against a solid Orioles lineup, but Houck has displayed the ability to miss bats, and the Orioles fan at an above average clip.
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Yusei Kikuchi continues to be an enigma. He’s 3-0, and his 3.80 ERA and 1.17 WHIP are impressive, but he’s also yielded six homers and has benefited from a .259 BABIP and 96.4% left on base mark. Jake Burger (3%) hasn’t hit a homer since cranking four in five games a couple weeks ago, but he’s a sneaky add against the Blue Jays southpaw.
Starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday
Bullpen usage watch for Wednesday
By Todd Zola
Four bullpens merit attention today, with another reminder the slate kicks off with an early 12:35 PM ET matinee in Cincinnati.
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It’s hard to envision Ryan Helsley being used today after throwing 42 pitches over the past three days. He threw 18 last night as he was charged with a blown save and a loss after allowing a two-run walkoff homer to Blake Sabol. The inning should have been over, but an error by Tommy Edman allowed Joc Pederson to reach leading off the bottom of the ninth. Helsley used 24 pitches to collect five outs in a set-up capacity Sunday. Giovanny Gallegos has worked three of the past four days, totaling 43 pitches, so he’s likely also unavailable today. Closing duties will probably fall to Drew VerHagen or Zack Thompson.
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Paul Sewald logged his seventh save last night but required 21 pitches in the process. He had previously pitched Saturday, so manager Scott Servais could hope for a quick inning from Sewald today, or he can give his workhorse the day off and trust Diego Castillo to lock down a win.
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Camilo Doval has pitched on three of the past four days, tossing 46 pitches. The problem is Taylor Rogers, Tyler Rogers, John Brebbia and Scott Alexander have all pitched yesterday and Sunday. The best approach is putting Doval on reserve, then looking elsewhere for a fill-in.
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The Angels project as the team with the best chance for wins over the next three days. Carlos Estevez notched a five-out save last night. Co-closer Jose Quijada was not used, as he was still recovering from a 27-pitch effort from last Saturday. Quijada is likely back in the mix today.
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Wednesday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
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Anthony Rendon (LAA, 3B — 40%) vs. Luis Medina
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Lars Nootbaar (STL, RF — 23%) at DeScalfani
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Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI, LF — 10%) vs. Ryan Yarbrough
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Evan Longoria (ARI, 3B — 1%) vs. Yarbrough
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Jesse Winker (MIL, LF — 17%) vs. Michael Lorenzen
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Mitch Haniger (SF, RF — 16%) vs. Steven Matz
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Josh Rojas (ARI, 3B — 22%) vs. Yarbrough
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Josh Naylor (CLE, 1B — 44%) vs. German Marquez
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Nolan Gorman (STL, 2B — 50%) at DeSclafani
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Wednesday
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C.J. Cron (COL, 1B — 78%) at Bibee
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Jordan Walker (STL, 3B — 52%) at DeScalfani
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Jorge Mateo (BAL, SS — 64%) vs. Houck
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MJ Melendez (KC, C — 65%) at Zac Gallen
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DJ LeMahieu (NYY, 3B — 72%) at Kenta Maeda
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Jose Miranda (MIN, 1B — 56%) vs. Domingo German
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Kris Bryant (COL, LF — 84%) at Bibee
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Tyler Stephenson (CIN, C — 55%) vs. Jon Gray
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Salvador Perez (KC, C — 88%) at Gallen
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Amed Rosario (CLE, SS — 58%) vs. Marquez
THE BAT X’s Best Stacks for Today
Prop of the Day
Nick Maton, Tigers: RBIs prop is set at 0.5 (+325/-500).
PROJECTION
THE BAT sees Maton putting up 0.45 RBIs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 37.6% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $59.83.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
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American Family Field grades out as the No. 10 stadium in Major League Baseball for LHB home runs, via THE BAT projection system.
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The American Family Field roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game 14 degrees hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.
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Maton will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta today.
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Maton hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1%, 90th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s eighth-shallowest CF fences today.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
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Maton has been pinch-hit for 10% of the time when facing a righty hurler this year.
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Maton is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (No. 1 on the slate today).