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Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Monday’s MLB Games
By Todd Zola
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Monday’s 11-game slate commences at 6:10 PM ET in Progressive Field with Peyton Battenfield (2.9%) and the Guardians entertaining Austin Gomber and the Rockies. The first day of the scoring period isn’t the ideal time to take chances, but even though Battenfield is ranked fifth from the bottom, he’s opposed by the lowest rated pitcher on the slate, hence is in a good spot to grab a win. Battenfield posted a quality start last time out, albeit against the Tigers. However, he limited the Yankees to one earned run over 4.2 innings in his first start. Colorado’s road wOBA is the second worst in the league with the fourth highest strikeout rate.
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Speaking of the Tigers, Milwaukee hosts Detroit in an interleague affair. After two road starts, Colin Rea (1.3%) will make his home debut for the Brewers. He was solid in his first start against the Padres but was hit hard by the Mariners in his last outing. Detroit totes the leagues worst wOBA and strikeout rates into American Family Field.
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The day’s final game features Alex Cobb (41.4%) and the Giants welcoming Jordan Montgomery and the Cardinals to Oracle Park for the opener of a four-game set by the bay. An early .407 BABIP has led to a bloated 1.50 WHIP, but 22 punch outs with only three walks in 19.1 frames has minimized damage, as evidenced by a 2.79 ERA. The excellent strikeout to walk ratio is more likely to persist than the high hit rate. The Cardinals offense has struggled away from Busch Stadium and Oracle Park is difficult on bats.
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There are several more scheduled pitchers with a rostership below 50%, but the matchups aren’t especially enticing. That said, with eight teams enjoying an off day, most fantasy lineups will have holes, so focusing on a full complement of hitters is the sager approach. Oscar Gonzalez (9.4%) has been futile against right-handers, dropping him into a short-side platoon role, but he continues to hit well against southpaws, so he’s in play with lefty Gomber opposing the Guardians.
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Oakland’s Ken Waldichuk was a fantasy favorite in the spring, but thus far he’s been a disappointment. Though, to be fair, after surrendering seven homers over his first two efforts, spanning 8.2 frames, he hasn’t yielded a long ball in the ensuing two outings. However, he’s only fanned nine with six walks over 11.1 innings in those last two starts. On Monday, the right-handed contingent of the Los Angeles Angels is in a favorable spot at home. He’s off to a slow start, but Anthony Rendon (41.4%) should benefit from the platoon advantage. Teammates Brandon Drury (23.9%), Gio Urshela (6.5%) and Zach Neto (4.8%) hit lower in the order, but as righty swingers, they’re in a favorable spot facing the Athletics’ left-hander.
Starting pitcher rankings for Monday
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Monday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
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Anthony Rendon (LAA, 3B — 41%) vs. Ken Waldichuk
Andrew Benintendi (CHW, LF — 22%) at Chris Bassitt
William Contreras (MIL, C — 43%) vs. Matthew Boyd
Josh Rojas (ARI, 3B — 23%) vs. Brad Keller
Riley Greene (DET, CF — 18%) at Colin Rea
Kerry Carpenter (DET, LF — 1%) at Rea
Harold Ramirez (TB, 1B — 19%) vs. Jose Urquidy
Javier Baez (DET, SS — 18%) at Rea
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI, LF — 10%) vs. Keller
Gio Urshela (LAA, 3B — 6%) vs. Waldichuk
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Monday
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Gunnar Henderson (BAL, 3B — 67%) vs. Chris Sale
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Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA, 2B — 84%) at Spencer Strider
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Jorge Mateo (BAL, SS — 62%) vs. Sale
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Jordan Walker (STL, 3B — 54%) at Alex Cobb
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Cedric Mullins (BAL, CF — 97%) vs. Sale
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Anthony Santander (BAL, RF — 72%) vs. Sale
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Tyler Stephenson (CIN, C — 58%) vs. Nathan Eovaldi
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Jose Miranda (MIN, 1B — 57%) vs. Jhony Brito
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Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS — 65%) at Taj Bradley
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DJ LeMahieu (NYY, 3B — 72%) at Sonny Gray
The Bat X’s Best Stacks for Monday
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Ken Waldichuk
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Lance Lynn
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Detroit Tigers at Colin Rea
THE BAT X is a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Prop of the day
St. Louis Cardinals Lars Nootbaar 0.5 home runs (+950/-2994)
THE BAT sees Nootbaar putting up 0.12 home runs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 11.7% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $22.80
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
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Nootbaar has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (50% of the time), but he is penciled in first in the batting order today.
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The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 13.7-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.
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Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage against Cobb today.
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Nootbaar has a high pull rate on his flyballs (33.3% — 77th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s second-shallowest RF fences today.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
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Oracle Park grades out as the No. 27 field in the league for left-handed home runs, per THE BAT projection system.
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Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weatherman calls for the fourth-coldest weather of all games on the slate at 57°.