Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.
Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Saturday’s MLB Games
By Mike Sheets
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Matchups don’t get much better than the one Anthony DeSclafani (47% rostered in ESPN leagues) has on Saturday. The right-hander is set to take on a Detroit Tigers club that’s been rubbing two sticks together offensively, ranking dead last in baseball with a .253 wOBA and 57 wRC+. For his part, DeSclafani has been terrific over two starts, putting up a 0.73 ERA while striking out 11 and walking none over 12 1/3 frames. If the Giants right-hander is available in your league, streaming choices don’t get much easier than this.
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Is the Jarred Kelenic (22% rostered) breakout finally happening? Through 11 games, the former top prospect is batting .351/.415/.703 with three home runs, including a gargantuan 482-foot blast against Julian Merryweather at Wrigley Field on Wednesday. He’s also chipped in a pair of steals. We’ll see how long this lasts, but for now Kelenic is an intriguing streamer against Colorado’s Ryan Feltner, the not-so-proud possessor of a career 6.27 ERA over 113 innings. Eugenio Suarez (38%) and Cal Raleigh (29%) are also worth streaming consideration in this favorable matchup.
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In terms of projected fantasy points, Hunter Brown (33%) is actually tied for second among all of Saturday’s starters (only Freddy Peralta is projected for more). Brown has a 3.09 ERA across two starts, and he’s coming off a dominant outing against the Minnesota Twins where he surrendered just one run (zero earned) on two hits over seven innings while fanning seven. The Texas offense has been middle-of-the-road this season, but with Corey Seager now sidelined, this is a below-average lineup. Start Brown with confidence on Saturday.
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In a Cincinnati Reds rotation that features high-upside hurlers Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft (28%) has arguably been the most impressive of the bunch in the early going. Ashcraft has delivered a 2.08 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through this first two starts, leaning on a swing-and-miss slider that was up two full ticks in his last outing. A matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark does carry some risk, but without Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins, that lineup is far less threatening. After keeping the Atlanta Braves in check his last time out (6 IP, 2 ER), Ashcraft should have what it takes to hold down the Phillies this weekend.
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Finding consistent catcher production can be difficult, even in ESPN’s standard game where you have to start only one backstop. That’s why it’s surprising that Logan O’Hoppe is still rostered in just 44% of ESPN leagues. The rookie has blasted four homers and knocked in 11 runs in just 10 games this season — and those numbers are backed up by a 50% hard-hit rate (80th percentile) and a 20.8% Barrel percentage (89th percentile). In other words, the 23-year-old’s early production looks legit. Scoop O’Hoppe up and start him on Saturday against Nick Pivetta, who is allowing an inflated 68% hard-hate rate so far this season.
Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday
Bullpen usage watch for Saturday
By Todd Zola
Several of the league’s saves leaders may not be available on Saturday as dictated by their recent heavy usage, With only two more days remaining in the head-to-head scoring period, keeping them active could prove to be an inefficient use of a valuable roster spot.
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Clay Holmes was brought into Thursday night’s game in the eighth with the Yankees leading the Twins 4-3, ostensibly for a two-inning save with usual set-up man Michael King unavailable. Holmes blew the save, throwing 17 pitches in the process. After needing 20 pitches to capture his fourth save on Wednesday, Holmes will likely get Saturday off, with King now rested and probably in line for a save if needed.
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Emmanuel Clase notched his fourth save last night, using 18 pitches to get it done. He also tossed 18 pitches on Wednesday. With 36 pitches thrown over the last three days, Clase’s availability is doubtful today, Top set-up men James Karinchak and Trevor Stephan are equally taxed, leaving Eli Morgan as a sneaky speculative play for a Saturday save. He could even work multiple innings since he hasn’t pitched in a week. For the season, Morgan has hurled six frames, yielding no earned runs, fanning nine with only one walk.
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Felix Bautista logged his fourth save on Friday night. On Thursday, he picked up the win. Over the past two days, he’s thrown 25 pitches, so he’s not likely to see action for the third consecutive day. Bryan Baker wasn’t needed last night, making him the probable closer for Kyle Gibson and the Orioles when they take on Michael Kopech and the White Sox in the Windy City.
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Camilo Doval worked a clean 10th inning, but things unraveled in the 11th and he was charged with the loss last night as the Tigers beat the Giants 4-3. Doval induced Zach McKinstry to hit a grounder to second leading off the 11th, but instead getting the out at first, David Villar tried to catch the ghost runner at third. Ryan Kreidler beat the throw. Doval fanned the next two batters, which should have ended the inning, but instead Nick Maton sent the fans home happy with a walk-off homer. Don’t worry about Doval’s misleading final line from last night, but find someone else for today since his 21 pitches likely gets him the day off. Taylor Rogers is well-rested, but he’s coming off a horrible outing last Wednesday, so Gabe Kapler may opt to use him in a lower-leverage scenario. John Brebbia also hasn’t pitched since Wednesday, putting him in position for today’s ninth inning, if needed.
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Saturday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
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Andrew Benintendi (CHW, LF — 26%) vs. Kyle Gibson
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Jorge Soler (MIA, LF — 7%) vs. Ryne Nelson
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Anthony Rendon (LAA, 3B — 43%) at Nick Pivetta
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Gavin Sheets (CHW, RF — 1%) vs. Gibson
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Michael Conforto (SF, RF — 16%) at Michael Lorenzen
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Isaac Paredes (TB, 3B — 34%) at Yusei Kikuchi
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Will Brennan (CLE, LF — 0%) at Chad Kuhl
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Enrique Hernandez (BOS, CF — 9%) vs. Tyler Anderson
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Lars Nootbaar (STL, RF — 24%) vs. Roansy Contreras
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Wilmer Flores (SF, 2B — 20%) at Lorenzen
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Saturday
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C.J. Cron (COL, 1B — 87%) at George Kirby
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Adolis Garcia (TEX, RF — 79%) at Hunter Brown
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Kris Bryant (COL, LF — 90%) at Kirby
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Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS — 66%) vs. Jon Gray
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Brian Anderson (MIL, 3B — 63%) at Seth Lugo
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Jordan Walker (STL, 3B — 63%) vs. Roansy Contreras
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Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B — 84%) at Brown
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James Outman (LAD, LF — 57%) vs. Jameson Taillon
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Corbin Carroll (ARI, LF — 88%) at Braxton Garrett
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Jose Miranda (MIN, 1B — 68%) at Domingo German
THE BAT X’s Best Stacks for Saturday
Prop of the Day
Kyle Gibson, Orioles, pitching outs: Over/Under 17.5 (-155/+110)
PROJECTION
THE BAT X sees Gibson putting up 16.3 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 41.7% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $22.41.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
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The weather report calls for the second-best hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
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Gibson has a reverse platoon split and will be disadvantaged facing six same-handed bats today.