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Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Friday’s MLB Games
By Todd Zola
Buoyed by four rescheduled opening days, Friday offers a nearly full 14-game slate. Eight of the contests are matinees, so be sure to attend to your lineups early. It’s also the first of 81 Coors Field slates. Something to keep in mind is there are a few venues better for power; Coors Field is mostly about inflating runs by 40%. Yes, the ball travels further at altitude, but the fences are very deep to keep long balls in check. However, the vast expanse of fair territory avails much more acreage for lofted balls to land safely, increasing hits and ergo runs.
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Using the RST% (rostered percentage) on starting pitcher rankings for Friday as a guide, Tylor Megill (6.8% rostered in ESPN leagues) is a no-brainer to pick up as we head into the last three days of the first scoring period in head-to-head formats. Megill is at home at Citi Field, the best pitching venue in the league. He’s facing a Marlins offense averaging the second-fewest runs per game in the league.
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Zach Eflin (20.6%) is available in fewer leagues than Megill, but he’s a better pitcher in an equally favorable setup. The former Phillies hurler takes the hill at home in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field, to be opposed by the Athletics, who have plated the eighth-fewest runs per game.
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In past years, Alex Cobb (45%) may not have been available in as many leagues, but with ESPN standard rosters now requiring just seven pitchers (it was previously nine), at least 20 more pitchers are in the free agent pool, compared to past seasons. Cobb was effective in his debut, fanning six Yankees in 3 2/3 innings, but he threw 76 pitches and was lifted early. He should be able to go deeper against the Royals offense toting the lowest weighted on base average (wOBA) into Oracle Park.
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Cobb will be opposed by Brad Keller (1.9%). Admittedly, this is more of a heart-over-head call, but Keller has a chance to thrive under new pitching coach Brian Sweeney, who last served as the Guardians pitching coach. Cleveland has a magic touch with pitching, so the hope is Sweeney brings some of that with him. Keller had a mixed opener as he fanned six in 4 2/3 innings, but he also walked four and yielded five hits and two runs.
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Clarke Schmidt (7.9%) is the fourth-lowest pitcher on the rankings, but he and the Yankees are the third biggest favorites based on our own W% metric. This factors into Schmidt’s FPTS, but if you’re way behind and need to take some chances, it may be better to pick up Schmidt than wait for the weekend where there will be more of a demand for the available starting pitchers.
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While many others are concentrating on hitters in the Rockies-Nationals matchup, consider swerving to St. Petersburg where the predominantly right-handed Tampa lineup squares off with southpaw Ken Waldichuk. Waldichuk was acquired by Oakland in the Frankie Montas deal. While he has potential, Waldichuk is still a work in progress, with control his main issue. Isaac Paredes (14%), Jose Siri (5.3%) and Manuel Margot (5.1%) are all righty swingers with a chance to work together for a big night.
Starting pitcher rankings for Friday
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Friday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
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Jeimer Candelario (WSH, 3B — 5%) at Jose Urena
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Dominic Smith (WSH, 1B — 1%) at Jose Urena
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Joey Meneses (WSH, 1B — 31%) at Jose Urena
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Luis Garcia (WSH, SS — 7%) at Jose Urena
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Jurickson Profar (COL, LF — 18%) vs. MacKenzie Gore
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Lane Thomas (WSH, LF — 5%) at Jose Urena
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CJ Abrams (WSH, SS — 17%) at Jose Urena
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Elehuris Montero (COL, 3B — 3%) vs. MacKenzie Gore
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Elias Diaz (COL, C — 1%) vs. MacKenzie Gore
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Jesse Winker (MIL, LF — 27%) vs. Jack Flaherty
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Thursday
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Tyler Stephenson (CIN, C — 60%) at Zack Wheeler
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Jordan Walker (STL, 3B — 53%) at Brandon Woodruff
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Adolis Garcia (TEX, RF — 81%) at Marcus Stroman
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Jonathan India (CIN, 2B — 59%) at Zack Wheeler
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Corbin Carroll (ARI, LF — 88%) vs. Clayton Kershaw
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Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 61%) vs. Nathan Eovaldi
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Tommy Edman (STL, 2B — 93%) at Brandon Woodruff
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Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS — 57%) at Dean Kremer
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Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B — 85%) at Marcus Stroman
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Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS — 63%) at Sonny Gray
THE BAT X’s Best Stacks for Today
Prop of the Day
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: Pitching Outs Over/Under 17.5 (-195/+145)
PROJECTION
THE BAT sees Kershaw putting up 15.8 Pitching Outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 38.2% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $51.32.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
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Clayton Kershaw projects as the 5th-best pitcher in the league, per THE BAT.
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Chase Field projects as the No. 30 field in the game for home runs, per THE BAT projection system.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
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The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in the league since the start of last season, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to positively regress in future games
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Alfonso Marquez grades out as a Extreme Hitters Umpire and is expected to be calling pitches today.
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The forecast calls for the best hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
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The Arizona Diamondbacks have 7 batters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Clayton Kershaw today.