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Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Tuesday’s MLB Games
By Derek Carty
• The best pitcher streaming option on this slate is easily Andrew Heaney (33% rostered in ESPN leagues). His inability to stay healthy keeps his rostership low, but the skills are there and became downright elite in 2022 (13.6 K/9, 2.83 xFIP). He gets a solid matchup against a mediocre Baltimore offense and is worth picking up in all formats.
• If you need a deeper choice than Heaney, Josh Fleming (sub-1% rostered) and Domingo German (4%) both fit the bill. Fleming, in particular, gets a stellar matchup against perhaps the worst offense in MLB, the Nationals. And he faces them in a pitchers’ park.
• Outside of the elite offenses of Toronto and Houston, the Cubs project as the next-best offense on the Tuesday slate according to THE BAT X. And outside of Dansby Swanson, there’s a reasonable chance of finding everyone else on your waiver wire. Seiya Suzuki (63%), Ian Happ (59%), Nico Hoerner (48%), Cody Bellinger (32%), Trey Mancini (15%), Eric Hosmer (2%) and Patrick Wisdom (2%) are all viable choices. They go into baseball’s best non-Coors park for hitters to face a weak pitcher in Luis Cessa. Elite matchup.
• If you’re looking for steals, the Cleveland Guardians are the team to focus on. They face off against a below-average pitcher in J.P. Sears, who is also quite easy to run on. Keep an eye on player prop lines for Jose Ramirez (99% rostered in fantasy) and Andres Gimenez (83%), while Amed Rosario (77%) could be available in your fantasy league and Myles Straw (2%) almost certainly is.
• If you’re speculating on saves, take a look at the Rangers’ Will Smith, who received the team’s first save opportunity of the season on Sunday night. Jose Leclerc was the presumptive favorite for the role, but he was passed over for Smith, even though he should have been fresh.
Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday
Gunnar Henderson (BAL, 3B — 89%) at Heaney
William Contreras (MIL, C — 53%) vs. Max Scherzer
Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS — 56%) vs. Matt Strahm
Corbin Carroll (ARI, LF — 90%) at Yu Darvish
Jose Miranda (MIN, 1B — 82%) at Sandy Alcantara
Willy Adames (MIL, SS — 89%) vs. Scherzer
Hunter Renfroe (LAA, RF — 63%) at Luis Castillo
Andres Gimenez (CLE, 2B — 83%) at JP Sears
Jake Cronenworth (SD, 2B — 96%) vs. Zac Gallen
Taylor Ward (LAA, RF — 87%) at Castillo
THE BAT X’s Best Stacks for Today
Prop of the Day
Julio Urias, Dodgers, pitching outs: Over/Under 17.5 (-195/+145)
THE BAT X sees Urias putting up 17.5 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.7% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $23.15.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
The Rockies projected lineup projects as the third-worst of all teams on the slate today.
Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report calls for the fourth-coldest weather on the slate today at 57 degrees.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
The Rockies have been the fifth-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball since the start of last season, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to perform better in future games.
“Jordan Baker, expected to be in charge of the strike zone today, projects as a hitter’s umpire.
Dodger Stadium projects as the No. 4 stadium in the majors for home runs, per THE BAT X projection system.
The Rockies have seven batters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Urias today.