Kiley McDaniel’s 2022 midseason top 50 MLB prospects

Kiley McDaniel’s 2022 midseason top 50 MLB prospects post thumbnail image

We’re in the midst of a changing of the guard at the top of minor league prospect lists. Adley Rutschmann, Bobby Witt Jr. and Julio Rodriguez had ruled these lists for months, and when they graduated early in the year, they left a pretty open field. Two months ago, I handicapped what the top of an updated list would look like, with the caveat that it would change more as we eventually got to this official post-trade-deadline update.

Turns out that caveat was necessary. At that point, I had a group of eight under consideration for the top spot (Riley Greene has since graduated, and C.J. Abrams and Gabriel Moreno are both close) and settled on Francisco Alvarez as the top prospect — but it was literally more by process of elimination than because there was a clear No. 1 at the time. I didn’t even include Orioles SS Gunnar Henderson in that top group — he was in the next tier, with Jordan Walker, Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar et al — but Henderson is now squarely in the conversation for the top spot. I’ll elaborate below on what has changed for these players since that update.

There are a number of intriguing risers who didn’t make the top 50 or the next-best list below the ranking, largely pitchers who will go in the 76-125 area (i.e. the bottom of the 50 FV tier) on this winter’s list, and many of them are players who moved at the deadline.

That list includes: Athletics LHP Ken Waldichuk (traded from the Yankees in the Frankie Montas deal), Orioles LHP Cade Povich (traded from the Twins in the Jorge Lopez trade), Dodgers RHP Nick Frasso (traded from the Jays in the Mitch White deal), Cubs CF Kevin Alcantara (traded at last year’s deadline from the Yankees for Anthony Rizzo), Guardians RHP Tanner Bibee, Guardians LHP Logan Allen, Cardinals RHP Gordon Graceffo, Rays SS Carson Williams, Rockies SS Adael Amador, Astros CF Colin Barber, Yankees C Austin Wells, Athletics SS Max Muncy, Marlins SS Jose Salas and Mets CF Alex Ramirez.

I don’t want to extend the intro more than I need to since the concept of this list (projecting these players’ futures, trying to be an analog for trade value, mix of industry consensus and my opinion) hasn’t changed, but scroll down to No. 13 on the list for two interesting trends I ran into making this list and No. 32 for a Juan Soto trade note. I won’t bother putting FVs on every player here, but I have the top group all as 60 FV (no one hits the 65 FV level that Rutschman/Witt/Rodriguez were at entering the season).

1. Corbin Carroll, CF, Diamondbacks

Age: 21 | Level: Triple-A
When I handicapped the prospects two months ago, I wouldn’t put Carroll at the top spot because we just hadn’t seen enough yet post-shoulder surgery. Now we have, and he has torched the upper minors at the same age as recent college draftees. The gap between Carroll and Henderson is pretty small, but I’ll lean to the shorter-limbed, more explosive player in a toss-up situation. Carroll profiles as a .280-.290 hitter with a strong walk rate who can get to 20-25 homers and steal 30+ bags. He’d also play a strong center field, though he might end up playing a corner if Alek Thomas stays a bit better defensively.

2. Gunnar Henderson, 3B, Orioles

Age: 21 | Level: Triple-A
Henderson put up goofy numbers in Double-A to start the year (in 47 games, he had more walks than strikeouts with 22 extra-base hits, all while young for the level). Last month, he went to Triple-A and has understandably not been quite as good there. But he still has been really good! He’s a fringy shortstop who could be above-to-plus as a third baseman, so I’d expect him to settle on the hot corner and produce something like .275 with 25 homers.

3. Anthony Volpe, SS, Yankees

Age: 21 | Level: Double-A
Since my update two months ago, Volpe has bounced back from a largely unlucky start and gone off: 49 games, 12% walks and strikeouts (26 of each), a .291/.386/.529 line with 25 extra-base hits and 19 stolen bases on 22 attempts. If No. 34 on this list (Oswald Peraza) wasn’t playing shortstop for the Yankees every day in Triple-A, Volpe would probably be there right now. The Yankees are 22nd in baseball in WAR from the shortstop position (even though Isiah Kiner-Falefa hit his first homer over the weekend!), so it could be time to look to the farm.

4. Francisco Alvarez, C, Mets

Age: 20 | Level: Triple-A
Alvarez came out on top as my pick for top prospect in the minors a few months ago, but since then, Volpe, Henderson and Carroll have all been red-hot, enough to slide ahead of Alvarez in a very tight race. You could argue Alvarez is the best hit/power projection combo in the minors given his performance, age and level, but some teams worry he’ll be a below-average contact guy in the majors, granted with huge power.

The bar for defensive excellence behind the plate will be lowering at some point in the future due to robot umps, but he’s still on the catcher-or-first-base part of the spectrum, so there’s a scenario where Alvarez is a first base/catcher hybrid who hits .250 with 30-plus homers. In that case, you’d rather take a couple of the guys above him on this list — but you still would love to have that player.

5. Jordan Walker, 3B, Cardinals

Age: 20 Level: Double-A
Walker, who had some defensive concerns tied to lateral quickness coming out of high school, has improved at third base since then, but the reasons he’s this high are his 40-homer potential, solid approach and good contact skills. I think he’ll be a big league factor in the back half of 2023, which means the Cards have a unique decision to make with Nolan Gorman, Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt — and helps explain why Walker started playing the outfield recently.

6. Gabriel Moreno, C, Blue Jays

Age: 22 | Level: Triple-A
Moreno is in a similar situation to C.J. Abrams earlier this season, in which a soccer-style loan to a bad team would be his best short-term situation to let him get regular big league at-bats until he has a regular spot to snag in Toronto. He’s a plus hitter with a solid approach, average power and above-average physical skills to allow him to stick behind the plate long-term.

Age: 22 | Level: Triple-A
He’s out with a lat strain and probably won’t pitch in the big leagues until next year, but he’s still a potential ace with two plus pitches and two plus-plus pitches along with starter traits. Nobody expects a lat strain to have long-lasting effects, so the previous report holds until Rodriguez gives us reason to believe otherwise. I can’t write about Rodriguez and not link to this video of his bananas changeup.

8. Jackson Chourio, CF, Brewers

Age: 18 | Level: High-A

Chourio kicks off a three-player run of premium up-the-middle types with plus tools at High-A. Chourio’s place at the top of this group caps an unprecedented run up the board this season — he started the year between 150 and 200 overall. He has a bit more hit-tool risk due to some free-swinging tendencies and mechanical variance, but he also has a shot for three 70-grade tools in power, speed and defense. Some scouts would move him even higher than this, but I’m accounting for sample size: We have had an 80-game period of this version of him, while everyone else ranked around here has at least a couple of years of showing this sort of performance/tools. That said, what we’ve seen from Chourio at this age is easily comparable to the top high school prospects in recent memory.

9. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Red Sox

Age: 19 | Level: High-A
Mayer is still silky smooth in all aspects as a projectable, lefty-hitting shortstop who projects for above-average tools everywhere except for speed. He also has exceeded expectations with a little more power and patience than I would’ve expected early in his career.

10. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Diamondbacks

Age: 20 | Level: High-A
I had Lawlar a hair ahead of Mayer on last year’s draft day, then flipped them in the winter, and they’re still neck-and-neck at this point. Even as the first player on my 2021 board, the sixth overall pick and the recipient of the third-highest bonus in the 2021 draft, Lawlar has exceeded expectations this year, putting up a goofy .351/.447/.603 in Low-A before promotion; he’s also a plus runner and defender at shortstop.

11. Eury Perez, RHP, Marlins

Age: 19 | Level: Double-A
Entering the year, Perez worried — essentially every pitcher of at least 6-foot-8 has had trouble repeating his delivery, and particularly when he was young and growing into his frame. Perez seems to be the outlier: He is still just 19 and has never had an issue with this, improving every year, now with three plus pitches and at least above-average command. His résumé as a pitching prospect is pristine, with top-tier performance, age-versus-level, no notable injury history, stuff, command and size — the biggest potential negative is still his height, which hasn’t ever given him an issue. I’ve flipped the switch now; I’ll just expect Perez to keep being at least this good until he proves he isn’t. A pairing with Sandy Alcantara in Miami could be frightening.

12. Daniel Espino, RHP, Guardians

Age: 21 | Level: Double-A
Espino has been out since April 29 with patellar tendinitis in his left knee — a shame since the injury came on the heels of some of the buzziest pitching performances in the minors in some time. In spring training and early in the 2022 season, Espino was sitting in the upper 90s, hitting 102 mph, with an 80-grade fastball and 70-grade slider. He has good enough feel to stay consistently in the zone and make his much-less-used curveball and changeup at least above-average offerings. There’s ace upside, and until this year there had been no real medical hiccups his whole career. If he gets back on the mound and picks up where he left off, he could join Grayson Rodriguez and Eury Perez as the best pitching prospect trio we’ve seen in a while.

13. James Wood, RF, Nationals

Age: 19 | Level: Low-A
You might be surprised to see Wood ranked first in the tightly grouped trio of prospect headliners from the Juan Soto deal; I was, as well. When I started sending a list around, I figured he’d land in the 30s, with Abrams and Hassell in the 10-20 area. I was accurate in predicting teams pumping the brakes on Abrams and Hassell — but I didn’t realize the Wood enthusiasm would be this big.

In 2021, Wood was a really tough draft evaluation after a summer during which he bullied pitchers with outlandish raw power but some swing and miss, then a spring in which he looked lost and passive at the plate. Kudos to the Padres for taking him 62nd overall for a bonus ($2.6 million) commensurate with the 26-27th overall pick. He was decent after signing, and this spring he has been better than he has ever been, with a great approach and the same huge exit velos. He needs to be promoted to face tougher competition, and there’s a bit of a ceiling since he’s going to settle in a corner, but there’s 30-plus-homer upside and plus athleticism to make you feel better about being this excited about a 6-foot-7 hitter. More than a few teams said they saw Wood as the headliner in the Soto deal, even ahead of MacKenzie Gore. Even those who disagreed didn’t do so vehemently.

There are two interesting trends to take from Wood’s climb: the emergence of the 6-foot-7 hitter (Aaron Judge, Oneil Cruz, Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Jones, Wood) and the rise of previously underrated prep hitters from the heavily scouted state of Florida (Wood and Edwin Arroyo from the 2021 draft, plus Vaughn Grissom, who was teammates with a draft-eligible Riley Greene, from 2019).

14. C.J. Abrams, SS, Nationals

Age: 21 | Level: Triple-A
Abrams has improved defensively at shortstop, but he was always going to fit somewhere up the middle and have impact speed. The real question is still how good his pitch selection will be, which will dictate how much of his offensive upside he gets to (.290 with 20-25 homers is the upside). He’ll need regular big league playing time to work that out, which the Nats can provide — they called him up to the majors this week — and the Padres really couldn’t. At this stage, Jurickson Profar was a similar player and represents something like a floor for Abrams.

15. Curtis Mead, 3B, Rays

Age: 21 | Level: Triple-A
Mead isn’t the greatest defender or raw athlete, but this isn’t the NFL combine. Mead can hit, has an excellent approach and will probably get to all of his raw power (20-25 homer upside). I’d imagine he’s a real everyday factor for the Rays next season.

16. Robert Hassell, CF, Nationals

Age: 20 | Level: High-A
Hassell has slipped for many, mostly analyst types, this season as his in-game power has regressed, but he’s still high for me because of the hit tool, makeup and defensive ability. I’m convinced he’ll be a plus hitter with a good approach who will do well at center, but whether he hits 12-15 homers or a bit more is the gap between low-end regular and standout player.

17. Diego Cartaya, C, Dodgers

Age: 20 | Level: High-A
I think Cartaya can stick behind the plate, but that’s still a question. What is not a question is his 30-homer upside and whether he has enough patience to get to it in games. There’s a chance his bat is ready before his glove, but this is a rare combo of real in-game power, approach, youth and defensive ability.

18. Tyler Soderstrom, C, Athletics

Age: 20 | Level: Double-A
Soderstrom kicks off a three-player run of “what position will he play? If he hits it won’t matter.” With the bar for catcher lowering at some point in the future with robot umps, I believe Soderstrom has the best chance of this trio to stick up the middle. He has the least raw power of the group, but I believe the highest marks in his hit/approach combination.

19. Orelvis Martinez, SS, Blue Jays

Age: 20 | Level: Double-A
Martinez is now being challenged enough at Double-A that his pitch selection is being stretched (he’s up to a 31% strikeout rate), but he’s still doing what he wants to do (25 homers in 92 games). If he can improve that pitch selection a notch at the upper levels, it won’t matter what position he plays in the bigs, though my guess is third base.

20. Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds

Age: 20 | Level: Double-A

De La Cruz is probably the most exciting prospect in the minors right now. He’s a 6-foot-7 shortstop — giving Oneil Cruz vibes — with plus to plus-plus tools all over the card. I thought his pitch selection was far enough behind that it would slow his progression through the minors, but he’s just so physically gifted (and his pitch selection was better than I expected this year) that he demolished High-A en route to a recent promotion.

21. Masyn Winn, SS, Cardinals

Age: 20 | Level: Double-A
Winn is one of the biggest risers on this list, going from a toolsy hitter with OK results to dramatically improving his approach and in-game power. His tools are still even more exciting than his results this year, with an 80-grade arm and above-to-plus hit, power and run tools, not to mention two potential 70-grade pitches (fastball, curveball) when he occasionally pitches.

22. Marco Luciano, SS, Giants

Age: 20 | Level: High-A
Luciano has been limited to 45 games this year, but he still has 30-plus-homer potential — though I’m still not sure which position he’ll settle at in the big leagues.

23. Zac Veen, RF, Rockies

Age: 20 | Level: Double-A
Veen is a sweet-swinging lefty with plus-plus power projection and above-average physical skills. He just got promoted to Double-A, but there’s one more gear left to turn his in-game gap power (career: 26 homers, 53 doubles/triples in 202 games) into over-the-fence juice. That improvement would move him into the top 10 of this list.

24. Josh Jung, 3B, Rangers

Age: 24 | Level: Triple-A
Jung had preseason shoulder surgery and just got back out on the field in competitive games a few weeks ago. Jung was 19th on my last Top 100, which dropped just before that surgery news was public, and he looked like he’d be on the short list for Rookie of the Year with an above-average hit-power-field combination.

Age: 23 | Level: MLB
He’ll lose his prospect eligibility within his next few big league appearances, but he’s on the IL right now and is expected to be until at least September. He has plus stuff with starter feel, but has thrown only 40 innings this year.

26. Druw Jones, CF, Diamondbacks

Age: 18 | Level: Rookie
He won’t make his pro debut until next year after a shoulder injury in his first few days as a professional, but his offensive upside has always been more of a multiyear projection. His plus-plus speed, defense and arm strength, though, are all big-league-ready now.

27. Henry Davis, C, Pirates

Age: 22 | Level: Double-A
I’m still not sure if he’s an everyday catcher — and whether that question even matters once robot umps take over — but he’s got 30-plus-homer upside, a good approach and he’s hitting. Davis is also a good enough athlete that he has options other than DH even if he isn’t a catcher.

28. Termarr Johnson, 2B, Pirates

Age: 18 | Level: Rookie
Yes, Johnson is my “gut feel” guy amongst this year’s group of draftees — but he looks too much like Rafael Devers or Jose Ramirez not to rank him this aggressively. He also comes with the young-for-the-class and very-long-track-record elements to make you feel confident he’ll make an impact.

29. Kyle Harrison, LHP, Giants

Age: 21 | Level: Double-A
Harrison just turned 21 a few days ago and continues to deal. He’s got three plus pitches, starter command and a lower slot to aid his deception. I would expect him in the big leagues at some point later next season.

30. Jackson Holliday, SS, Orioles

Age: 18 | Level: Rookie
I’ve kept Jones, Johnson and Holliday in the same order I had them pre-draft, but they’re now so tightly packed that I’m sure they’ll shuffle at some point in the next 12 months. The O’s thought Holliday was the best player in the draft, and I think he has the best mix of upside and short-term offensive skills, so I could see him at the top of that 2022 class in a year.

31. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Cubs

Age: 20 | Level: High-A
PCA was known to scouts early in his high school career as a plus hitter and fielder in center who slowly added strength and power as he aged. Though he was out for the year with shoulder surgery, PCA was the return for last year’s ill-fated Mets rental of Javier Baez. He returned to the field this year, made a swing tweak and now looks to be at least a solid everyday player, if not more.

32. Andrew Painter, RHP, Phillies

Age: 19 | Level: High-A
Painter (great pitcher name) has had a huge velo spike this spring, gaining 3-4 ticks (he’s now hitting triple digits) and firming up his already 55-to-60 grade raw stuff to be even better. He’s the consensus best pitching prospect in baseball below Double-A — chatter around the league is that he was one of the players the Nationals were trying to initiate side deals or three-way trades to include in Juan Soto trade proposals.

33. George Valera, RF, Guardians

Age: 21 | Level: Triple-A
I’ve loved Valera’s visually pleasing lefty swing since I first saw it at age 16. That was before he signed with the Guardians, and now he’s knocking on the door of the big leagues. Offensively, his profile skews three true outcomes with plus power, but he’s also a good enough runner and fielder to give real defensive value thanks to good instincts and a plus arm in right field.

34. Oswald Peraza, SS, Yankees

Age: 22 | Level: Triple-A
Given the Yankees’ weakness at shortstop this season, Peraza would seem to be on a short list of potential call-ups for New York (which would also help the logjam that has Volpe stranded in Double-A by Peraza’s presence in Triple-A). He has bounced back since a slow start this season and would be easy to call up as a plus runner and fielder with 15-20-homer upside and solid contact/approach skills.

35. Colson Montgomery, SS, White Sox

Age: 20 | Level: High-A

Montgomery was a player many numbers-oriented draft rooms were low on due to the fact that he was already 19 years old as a prep prospect on draft day last summer. He went 22nd overall, at the low end of his expected range (I ranked him 13th), so kudos to the White Sox, whose hauls I historically haven’t liked much at the time of the draft. He’s still probably a third baseman long-term, but there’s easy plus raw power and he has shown a better approach with more hit ability than many expected. If you want to imagine a best-case scenario: Though they aren’t the same player, this is similar to what Gunnar Henderson’s early returns were like.

36. Edwin Arroyo, SS, Reds

Age: 18 | Level: Low-A
Arroyo is one of the biggest arrow-up players from last summer’s draft. He went about where projected (48th overall to the Mariners) and immediately had big buzz after turning pro — now, a year later, he just became the headliner in the Luis Castillo deal. He’s a young-for-the-class switch hitter with above average power potential who will stick at shortstop, but everyone has been surprised by how quickly his approach has allowed for in-game power and good pitch selection at a full-season level.

37. Brett Baty, 3B, Mets

Age: 22 | Level: Triple-A
I was the high guy on Baty in the draft — he was one of the oldest high-end prep prospects in a while, so plenty of teams were totally out. That meant he needed to hit quickly in the minors to hold his value, and he has done that. He’s a power-over-hit, three-true-outcomes type who’s always going to be on the third/first base part of the positional spectrum, but there’s 30-homer upside.

38. Brayan Rocchio, SS, Guardians

Age: 21 | Level: Double-A
Rocchio has tools (plus hitter, runner and fielder), but is on the smaller side and has limited power upside, something like 15 homers. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt over similar players in this range, though, because Rocchio has looked like this kind of player for years.

39. Sal Frelick, CF, Brewers

Age: 22 | Level: Triple-A
At the time, I loved what the Brewers did in last year’s draft, getting Frelick at 15th overall and Tyler Black (another arrow-up guy this spring) at 33rd overall. Both are shorter-limbed contact-first late bloomers with enough tools to play up the middle. In his first full season, Frelick is in Triple-A and looks like he’ll have a floor as a low-end regular with an excellent approach and 12-15-homer upside.

40. Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Rockies

Age: 21 | Level: Double-A
Entering the year, Tovar was a plus-glove shortstop who swung too much, with good bat control but limited power. Though he’s very young for Double-A, he has more than doubled his walk rate this year and has already hit 13 home runs and stolen 17 bases in 66 games.

41. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Blue Jays

Age: 19 | Level: Double-A
In the shortened 2020 draft, Tiedemann didn’t sign as a 17-year-old prep lefty. After a season at junior college, he was selected in the third round last summer, a round later than I had him graded. This year, in his first full pro season, he has had a huge breakout. He’s still a teenager (for a few more days) and now sits in the mid-90s with above-to-plus stuff, an en-vogue lower slot and starter command.

42. Miguel Vargas, 3B, Dodgers

Age: 22 | Level: Triple-A
Vargas has tightened his zone this year, addressing his biggest concern, and he got a brief cup of coffee, so he’s on the radar for another late-season big league look. He’s a plus hitter with 20ish-homer upside. He’s decent at third base, but could eventually be more of a first baseman.

43. Colton Cowser, CF, Orioles

Age: 22 | Level: Double-A
Cowser is arrow-up after a slow start to the season. After being promoted to Double-A, his isolated power almost doubled and he increased his walks and cut his strikeout rate. If this 34-game look is real, it would really change the projection for the lanky, hit-first center fielder.

44. Bobby Miller, RHP, Dodgers

Age: 23 | Level: Double-A
Miller is a big dude who attacks with plus stuff and is in maybe the best org for developing that kind of pitcher. I would guess he won’t stay in Double-A much longer, and he’s the sort who could be a playoff factor out of the bullpen as soon as this year.

45. Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles

Age: 20 | Level: Double-A
Things are going well on the farm for the Orioles — they still have the top system even after graduating the top prospect in the game — and Mayo is another prospect who’s steadily improving. He was recently promoted to Double-A and is continuing to show 30-homer potential.

46. Mick Abel, RHP, Phillies

Age: 20 | Level: High-A
If Painter is the clear below Double-A favorite, the player who comes second to him on that list is also on the Phillies. Abel, like Painter, was a standout talent early in high school and has continued progressing, even if he hasn’t had the huge spike in ability that Painter did this year.

47. Evan Carter, CF, Rangers

Age: 19 | Level: High-A
Carter was a little-known popup prep prospect in the 2020 pandemic draft class and ended up going in the second round. His patient approach, gap power and lanky projectable frame have played surprisingly well in pro ball, so kudos to the Rangers’ scouting staff for finding Carter in a condensed schedule.

48. Vaughn Grissom, SS, Braves

Age: 21 | Level: MLB
I noted Grissom among the breakouts in my update two months ago. He had been hovering in the 126-150 overall range while he was in High-A, then moved into the 76-100 range as he continued hitting at Double-A. Now he’s still hitting in a surprise big league appearance, so I’m not quite sure where to put him. He has a chance to be average or better at everything and might end up a long-term everyday shortstop.

49. Brayan Bello, RHP, Red Sox

Age: 23 | Level: MLB
Bello has had steady improvement on his raw stuff for a couple of years and now has three plus pitches. This season, as his command/delivery took a step forward, he now projects as a mid-rotation starter.

50. Andy Pages, RF, Dodgers

Age: 21 | Level: Double-A
The embarrassment of riches continues for the Dodgers. Pages is decent in center field (but I think he’ll end up in right) and, more importantly, he has 30-homer potential. At the age of recent college draftees, he’s hitting 20 homers in Double-A, after hitting 31 in High-A last year. Oh, and he has maybe the best arm strength in the minor leagues.

The next-best prospect for each team

Angels: Logan O’Hoppe, C
Astros: Hunter Brown, RHP
Athletics: Shea Langeliers, C
Blue Jays: Brandon Barriera, LHP
Braves: A.J. Smith-Shawver, RHP
Brewers: Tyler Black, 2B
Cardinals: Ivan Herrera, C
Cubs: Brennen Davis, CF
Diamondbacks: Brandon Pfaadt, RHP
Dodgers: Gavin Stone, RHP
Giants: Luis Matos, CF
Guardians: Gavin Williams, RHP
Marlins: Peyton Burdick, CF
Mariners: Harry Ford, C
Mets: Ronny Mauricio, SS
Nationals: Brady House, SS
Orioles: Jordan Westburg, SS
Padres: Luis Campusano, C
Phillies: Johan Rojas, CF
Pirates: Liover Peguero, SS
Rays: Carson Williams, SS
Rangers: Jack Leiter, RHP
Reds: Noelvi Marte, SS
Red Sox: Triston Casas, 1B
Rockies: Drew Romo, C
Royals: Nick Pratto, 1B
Tigers: Colt Keith, 3B
Twins: Emmanuel Rodriguez, RF
White Sox: Bryan Ramos, 3B
Yankees: Jasson Dominguez, CF

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