Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Saturday’s MLB games
By Mike Sheets
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Saturday’s matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals features a pair of worthy streamers in Merrill Kelly (rostered in 50% of ESPN leagues) and Miles Mikolas (48%). Kelly has delivered a 1.69 ERA over his first four starts to go along with a career-best 9.3 K/9 rate, which has been fueled by a 36.4% whiff rate on his changeup. Mikolas, meanwhile, owns a 1.21 ERA over four outings and gets one of the day’s better matchups against the D-backs, who rank 29th in baseball with a .267 wOBA.
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It was easy to write off Jesus Luzardo (45%) after he posted a 6.61 ERA in 25 appearances in 2021, but it’s hard not to get pulled back in after his strong start to the season. The 24-year-old, who boasts a 3.77 ERA and 14.4 K/9 in three starts, has experienced a nearly two mph jump in his fastball velocity (95.5 mph to 97.4 mph). He’s also now throwing his curveball nearly 45% of the time (up from 28.7% in 2021). The Seattle Mariners have been tough on lefties this year, but Luzardo offers enough strikeout upside to give him plenty of DFS and streaming appeal.
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Tristan H. Cockcroft believes bad calls have influenced rookie Julio Rodriguez’s slow start with the Seattle Mariners.
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The Cincinnati Reds offense has been almost non-existent so far, but Coors Field is a great place to jumpstart a lineup. The Reds’ left-handed bats could make for a sneaky DFS stack against Chad Kuhl, whose past home-run issues are bound to crop up again at Coors Field. Although Joey Votto is slumping to start the season, it’s worth noting that he has a career .347/.450/.589 slash line in Colorado.
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There were questions about Alec Bohm (24%) and his playing time heading into the season, but he’s now playing every day and making the most of it, hitting .326/.375/.500 with a pair of homers and 14 RBIs in 18 games. He’s also sporting strong strikeout (13.5%) and walk rates (11.5%) to go along with a 53.8% hard-hit rate, so he’s not simply getting by on good luck. Consider grabbing him for the short-term, and he might just end up being a long-term asset.
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Eric Lauer (39%) is coming off an absolutely dominant outing against the Philadelphia Phillies in which he fired six shutout frames and fanned a career-high 13 batters. The left-hander is working with career-best velocity this season, so it’s possible some of this early-season success sticks. Let it ride on Saturday against the Cubs, who have been less effective against lefties this season.
Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday
Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
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Tommy Pham (CIN, LF — 34%) at Kuhl
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Tyler Naquin (CIN, CF — 5%) at Kuhl
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Mike Moustakas (CIN, 3B — 10%) at Kuhl
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Nick Senzel (CIN, CF — 2%) at Kuhl
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Colin Moran (CIN, 1B — 1%) at Kuhl
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Kyle Farmer (CIN, SS — 7%) at Kuhl
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Wilmer Flores (SF, 3B — 22%) vs. Joan Adon
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Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 41%) vs. Justin Steele
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Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B — 22%) vs. Chris Archer
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Taylor Ward (LAA, RF — 41%) at Vince Velasquez
Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday
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Jeimer Candelario (DET, 3B — 56%) at Clayton Kershaw
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Bobby Witt Jr. (KC, SS — 88%) vs. Gerrit Cole
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Jonathan Schoop (DET, 1B — 59%) at Kershaw
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Sean Murphy (OAK, C — 82%) vs. Shane Bieber
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Julio Rodriguez (SEA, RF — 61%) at Luzardo
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Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 69%) at Lauer
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Mark Canha (NYM, LF — 68%) vs. Kyle Gibson
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Austin Meadows (DET, LF — 92%) at Kershaw
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Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 77%) at Kershaw
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Javier Baez (DET, SS — 89%) at Kershaw
THE BAT X’s Best Stacks for Saturday
Prop of the Day
Justin Steele strikeouts: Over/Under 4.5 (-150/+118)
PROJECTION
THE BAT sees Steele putting up 3.8 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 34.4% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $42.97.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
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The Brewers (26.1 K%, via THE BAT) project to have the most strikeout-heavy lineup today.
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Hunter Wendelstedt, expected to be calling pitches today, projects as a pitcher’s umpire.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
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THE BAT projects Steele to throw 69 pitches in this game (least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
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The Brewers have seven hitters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Steele in this matchup.
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The American Family Field roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest 7 degrees hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate – which is favorable for offense.
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Projected catcher Willson Contreras profiles as a weak pitch framer, according to THE BAT projection system.